Form Submission: Participation Entry

Research Day Entry

Change in Air Pollution Exposure and Related Health Impact under Climate Change in U.S. Urban Centers

Accurate evaluation of health impacts from air pollutants under climate change is essential to estimate the health burden and marginal cost of climate change and to make informed decisions about mitigation and adaption policy. This is especially important as many U.S. cities already face high levels of harmful air pollutants. I aim to estimate changes in the health impacts of PM2.5 and ozone under different climate change scenarios in major counties of the contiguous U.S., with uncertainty intervals estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. With emission projected under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 and air pollutant concentrations simulated by my collaborators, I will estimate changes in excess number of cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions attributable to exposure of each pollutant among the elderly from levels in the present-day (2001-2010) to levels for a future decade (2045-2054) in about 200 major U.S. counties. I will consider the change of CRF over time, potential spatial heterogeneity and potential indicators of vulnerability (e.g., race, sex, and age), and identify critical regions and populations for mitigation and adaptation. This work will be beneficial to policy makers designing climate change policies, but also to communities interested in local climate adaptation measures and air quality.